Thank you for this blog. At the small end of the market it can feel like all four stages happen at various stages within a (market) cycle, or at least this has been the case since the Covid bottom and for some commodities there have already been a few cycles (Iron Ore). Hopefully most investors have worked out the questions you pose, otherwise a punch in the face could happen soon as for broader markdt we're definitely a long way from bottom, at least in terms of time. Your blog post is a good read for those investors, as is Howard Mark's book on market cycles.
Great stuff
Thank you for this blog. At the small end of the market it can feel like all four stages happen at various stages within a (market) cycle, or at least this has been the case since the Covid bottom and for some commodities there have already been a few cycles (Iron Ore). Hopefully most investors have worked out the questions you pose, otherwise a punch in the face could happen soon as for broader markdt we're definitely a long way from bottom, at least in terms of time. Your blog post is a good read for those investors, as is Howard Mark's book on market cycles.
this is great point. also stages don't have to go in order.. sometimes they move back and forward too.. as Mark's says.. its a pendulum.