I think there's still too much uncertainty for SE to be a "screaming buy" even here after the plunge. Management is clearly intent on spending more money to gain market share in the next 3-4 quarters at least. There's no visibility to margins or upward inflection. Strong competitors all around. Will BABA's Lazada increase competitive pressure in SE Asia once it spins off from the parent co? Will PDD's Temu enter SE Asia at some point?
TO ADD SOME PERSPECTIVE: I don't buy much online, but when I do, I generally use Shopee here in Malaysia vs. Lazada. Why? The products, sellers and prices are mostly the same along with delivery times. HOWEVER, Lazada (I think...) would not take my foreign CC and I prefer to pay cash. With Shopee, I can order, take the QR code to 7/11 (I think they give 48 hours or something - more than enough time), and pay cash there. Then the seller ships... For some reason, Lazada here does not have that option - only cash on delivery which is a REAL PAIN - especially if you are in a highrise condo. Last time I ordered something there (curtains - I needed a very particular color and size to replace some old ones and the sellers on Shopee did not have the size and color I needed for some reason), I missed the first delivery (on a weekend when I went somewhere and was on the train back when delivery called me...) and had to wait around for the next time he came around...
Was also told by an ex-Shopee employee last year that they know they can't compete any more in the online advertising space (its gotten too expensive...) with Lazada etc, so when they do ads, they try to be as annoying as possible to get your attention! However, have not seen any ads in awhile from either albeit I get alot of annoying text messages from both which I ignore...
Thanks for the link in your post and thanks for the comments. interesting on lazada. I dont order from them much. But i will say shopee's delivery has become amazing. i find everythign in need locally, delivery happens in 1-2 day, and delivery driveres are highly communicative even sending me photos of where they left the parcel.
Ahh you are in Singapore... I think eCommerce has largely become a utility or commodity e.g. when I go to the USA, not that much difference b/w Amazon, Best Buy (electronics), Wal-Mart, etc. when it comes to products, prices, and delivery times (I am in no hurry, so prefer the cheapest shipping options). HOWEVER, for something valuable, I rather have it shipped to a physical store (Wal-Mart) as my parents are in a rural area and it can sometimes be hard to hear the truck when you have double panned windows. Plus you eventually need to go to Wal-Mart for something anyway. It might just take awhile for them to go in the back and fetch the item....
I think there's still too much uncertainty for SE to be a "screaming buy" even here after the plunge. Management is clearly intent on spending more money to gain market share in the next 3-4 quarters at least. There's no visibility to margins or upward inflection. Strong competitors all around. Will BABA's Lazada increase competitive pressure in SE Asia once it spins off from the parent co? Will PDD's Temu enter SE Asia at some point?
yep, very fair point of view to say this is in the too hard pile.
I included a link to you post in my Monday post: https://emergingmarketskeptic.substack.com/p/emerging-markets-week-august-21-2023
TO ADD SOME PERSPECTIVE: I don't buy much online, but when I do, I generally use Shopee here in Malaysia vs. Lazada. Why? The products, sellers and prices are mostly the same along with delivery times. HOWEVER, Lazada (I think...) would not take my foreign CC and I prefer to pay cash. With Shopee, I can order, take the QR code to 7/11 (I think they give 48 hours or something - more than enough time), and pay cash there. Then the seller ships... For some reason, Lazada here does not have that option - only cash on delivery which is a REAL PAIN - especially if you are in a highrise condo. Last time I ordered something there (curtains - I needed a very particular color and size to replace some old ones and the sellers on Shopee did not have the size and color I needed for some reason), I missed the first delivery (on a weekend when I went somewhere and was on the train back when delivery called me...) and had to wait around for the next time he came around...
Was also told by an ex-Shopee employee last year that they know they can't compete any more in the online advertising space (its gotten too expensive...) with Lazada etc, so when they do ads, they try to be as annoying as possible to get your attention! However, have not seen any ads in awhile from either albeit I get alot of annoying text messages from both which I ignore...
Thanks for the link in your post and thanks for the comments. interesting on lazada. I dont order from them much. But i will say shopee's delivery has become amazing. i find everythign in need locally, delivery happens in 1-2 day, and delivery driveres are highly communicative even sending me photos of where they left the parcel.
Ahh you are in Singapore... I think eCommerce has largely become a utility or commodity e.g. when I go to the USA, not that much difference b/w Amazon, Best Buy (electronics), Wal-Mart, etc. when it comes to products, prices, and delivery times (I am in no hurry, so prefer the cheapest shipping options). HOWEVER, for something valuable, I rather have it shipped to a physical store (Wal-Mart) as my parents are in a rural area and it can sometimes be hard to hear the truck when you have double panned windows. Plus you eventually need to go to Wal-Mart for something anyway. It might just take awhile for them to go in the back and fetch the item....